ted by a relatively small number of western hemisphere copper producers, such as Phelps Dodge (PD), BHP Billiton (BHP), Teck Cominco (TCK) and Chilean-state-owned Codelco. And of course, the eastern hemisphere wild card: China. Molybdenum can be a copper mine’s byproduct, which is basically produced for little or no cost. Aside from a very small number of new near-term primary molybdenum producers, where is the excitement in this sector?

It’s not in the price. In a previous interview with Michael Magyar, USGS molyb

This past Tuesday, molybdenum traded at $24/pound when a Chilean copper commission spokesperson forecast the metal would drop to an average $20/pound this year. But on Thursday, Platts Metal Daily reported molybdenum oxide trading higher: $24.80 to $26/pound.

We’ve wondered about the price rallies of various metals we’ve been following, hoping to understand some of the emotions behind the excitement. Being skeptical, some of this begins to sound like mob hysteria. On the sunny side of the fence, one could call this exuberance. Cui bono is our question. Who benefits?

For the utilities hoping to obtain nuclear fuel for their reactors, a rising uranium price and lessened available SWU capacity to meet their needs exacerbate the worry about whether not the nuclear renaissance can be realistically sustained. For molybdenum, soaring stainless steel and super alloy demand helps keep the silvery metal well above the actual production costs to mine it. Plans for building more pipelines with stronger anti-corrosive properties adds a sexy energy twist, spicing up what Raymond James mining analyst Bart Jaworski calls a boring story.

With uranium, there is excitement because a very small number of new near-term producers recently signed contracts to sell future U3O8 production with escalating floor price protection, or simply sold production at/near the record uranium price. Obviously, they benefit, and so have their shareholders. For uranium companies hoping to produce within the next five to six years, higher prices are likely to attract deep-pocket joint venture partners to bring their mines into production, or to further their development activities. Or simply to raise more cash for their treasury by selling shares at a price they might never have imagined possible two years ago. To the physical uranium speculator, it has provided a double-, triple-, or higher-digit ‘paper return’ on an investment.

The point of rising metals prices was to encourage new production in the respective sector. In the case of molybdenum, the metal’s price is pretty much dictated by a relatively small number of western hemisphere copper producers, such as Phelps Dodge (PD), BHP Billiton (BHP), Teck Cominco (TCK) and Chilean-state-owned Codelco. And of course, the eastern hemisphere wild card: China. Molybdenum can be a copper mine’s byproduct, which is basically produced for little or no cost. Aside from a very small number of new near-term primary molybdenum producers, where is the excitement in this sector?

It’s not in the price. In a previous interview with Michael Magyar, USGS molybd

exuberance. Cui bono is our question. Who benefits?

For the utilities hoping to obtain nuclear fuel for their reactors, a rising uranium price and lessened available SWU capacity to meet their needs exacerbate the worry about whether not the nuclear renaissance can be realistically sustained. For molybdenum, soaring stainless steel and super alloy demand helps keep the silvery metal well above the actual production costs to mine it. Plans for building more pipelines with stronger anti-corrosive properties adds a sexy energy twist, spicing up what Raymond James mining analyst Bart Jaworski calls a boring story.

With uranium, there is excitement because a very small number of new near-term producers recently signed contracts to sell future U3O8 production with escalating floor price protection, or simply sold production at/near the record uranium price. Obviously, they benefit, and so have their shareholders. For uranium companies hoping to produce within the next five to six years, higher prices are likely to attract deep-pocket joint venture partners to bring their mines into production, or to further their development activities. Or simply to raise more cash for their treasury by selling shares at a price they might never have imagined possible two years ago. To the physical uranium speculator, it has provided a double-, triple-, or higher-digit ‘paper return’ on an investment.

The point of rising metals prices was to encourage new production in the respective sector. In the case of molybdenum, the metal’s price is pretty much dictated by a relatively small number of western hemisphere copper producers, such as Phelps Dodge (PD), BHP Billiton (BHP), Teck Cominco (TCK) and Chilean-state-owned Codelco. And of course, the eastern hemisphere wild card: China. Molybdenum can be a copper mine’s byproduct, which is basically produced for little or no cost. Aside from a very small number of new near-term primary molybdenum producers, where is the excitement in this sector?

It’s not in the price. In a previous interview with Michael Magyar, USGS molyb

exy energy twist, spicing up what Raymond James mining analyst Bart Jaworski calls a boring story.

With uranium, there is excitement because a very small number of new near-term producers recently signed contracts to sell future U3O8 production with escalating floor price protection, or simply sold production at/near the record uranium price. Obviously, they benefit, and so have their shareholders. For uranium companies hoping to produce within the next five to six years, higher prices are likely to attract deep-pocket joint venture partners to bring their mines into production, or to further their development activities. Or simply to raise more cash for their treasury by selling shares at a price they might never have imagined possible two years ago. To the physical uranium speculator, it has provided a double-, triple-, or higher-digit ‘paper return’ on an investment.

The point of rising metals prices was to encourage new production in the respective sector. In the case of molybdenum, the metal’s price is pretty much dictated by a relatively small number of western hemisphere copper producers, such as Phelps Dodge (PD), BHP Billiton (BHP), Teck Cominco (TCK) and Chilean-state-owned Codelco. And of course, the eastern hemisphere wild card: China. Molybdenum can be a copper mine’s byproduct, which is basically produced for little or no cost. Aside from a very small number of new near-term primary molybdenum producers, where is the excitement in this sector?

It’s not in the price. In a previous interview with Michael Magyar, USGS molyb

cket joint venture partners to bring their mines into production, or to further their development activities. Or simply to raise more cash for their treasury by selling shares at a price they might never have imagined possible two years ago. To the physical uranium speculator, it has provided a double-, triple-, or higher-digit ‘paper return’ on an investment.

The point of rising metals prices was to encourage new production in the respective sector. In the case of molybdenum, the metal’s price is pretty much dictated by a relatively small number of western hemisphere copper producers, such as Phelps Dodge (PD), BHP Billiton (BHP), Teck Cominco (TCK) and Chilean-state-owned Codelco. And of course, the eastern hemisphere wild card: China. Molybdenum can be a copper mine’s byproduct, which is basically produced for little or no cost. Aside from a very small number of new near-term primary molybdenum producers, where is the excitement in this sector?

It’s not in the price. In a previous interview with Michael Magyar, USGS molyb

ted by a relatively small number of western hemisphere copper producers, such as Phelps Dodge (PD), BHP Billiton (BHP), Teck Cominco (TCK) and Chilean-state-owned Codelco. And of course, the eastern hemisphere wild card: China. Molybdenum can be a copper mine’s byproduct, which is basically produced for little or no cost. Aside from a very small number of new near-term primary molybdenum producers, where is the excitement in this sector?

It’s not in the price. In a previous interview with Michael Magyar, USGS molybdenum specialist, he told us, “The price is now trending anywhere. It’s just drifting around $25/pound.” Another industry expert agreed the price is likely to stagnate at this new level for a while.

Despite the ranting of some, molybdenum oxide is unlikely to soon return to the May to July 2005 highs circa $40/pound. The price anomaly was just that – an industry caught off guard too quickly and producing too little. And which within a six-month period caught up with itself. Similar to those projects we have been investigating in the uranium sector, those hoping and praying for another supersonic price rise in molybdenum are those backing the more marginal mining projects. After all, if you don’t have economic grades, a parabolic price rise is just the right shade of lipstick for the pig some companies hope to pawn off on the unwary.

Last month, Seeking Alpha published an article we submitted, “In the Case of Uranium Stocks, Smaller May Be Better.” The problem impacting the larger uranium companies, such as Cameco Corp (CCJ) and ERA (Australia) are the legacy contracts whereupon utilities continue to get uranium for less than $30/pound, and in some cases for less than $20/pound. After ERA recently announced record fourth quarter U3O8 production, the Australian media highlighted the Down Under miner had mostly missed out on the record price of uranium because of those long-term contracts.

With molybdenum, the smaller projects may be better with regards to the opportunities investors must choose from. In early November in a two-part series, we interviewed William G. Cook, the North American representative for Derek Raphael & Company – currently the world’s largest molybdenum trader. He advised us, “I do not believe we will see any of the moly mega deposits developed in the foreseeable future.”

Cook warned of the considerable capital costs, reclamation liabilities and operating costs for the behemoth projects. Instead, he pointed to the smaller, higher grade primary molybdenum deposits. It’s where he sees the future of moly production as a complemen