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Will You Add? - Kelly Criterion for Stock Trading Size
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If you think of b as the odds of b-to-1, payout of b when betting 1 unit of money, the numerator is simply the
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K% = ( (b+1) * p - 1) / b = ( b*p - (1-p) ) / b Win probability (p): The probability that any given trade you make will return a positive amount.
Win/loss ratio (b) or odds: The total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trade amounts.
If you think of b as the odds of b-to-1, payout of b when betting 1 unit of money, the numerator is simply the
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K% = ( (b+1) * p - 1) / b = ( b*p - (1-p) ) / b Win probability (p): The probability that any given trade you make will return a positive amount.
Win/loss ratio (b) or odds: The total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trade amounts.
If you think of b as the odds of b-to-1, payout of b when betting 1 unit of money, the numerator is simply the
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K% = ( (b+1) * p - 1) / b = ( b*p - (1-p) ) / b Win probability (p): The probability that any given trade you make will return a positive amount.
Win/loss ratio (b) or odds: The total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trade amounts.
If you think of b as the odds of b-to-1, payout of b when betting 1 unit of money, the numerator is simply the
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K% = ( (b+1) * p - 1) / b = ( b*p - (1-p) ) / b Win probability (p): The probability that any given trade you make will return a positive amount.
Win/loss ratio (b) or odds: The total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trade amounts.
If you think of b as the odds of b-to-1, payout of b when betting 1 unit of money, the numerator is simply the
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If you think of b as the odds of b-to-1, payout of b when betting 1 unit of money, the numerator is simply the mean value of expected payout, or the so-called “edge”. Therefore, K% can be expressed as edge/odd. For obvious reason, you don’t want to bet in any game where the expected payout is 0 or negative.
If Kelly Criterion is so great, why is that this is not heard or used very often in the investing world. There are a couple of reasons that prevent it to be used practically:
- The volatility of strictly using Kelly Criterion is quite big. Despite that in the long term, probabilistically speaking your portfolio will have the maximum return possible, the ups and downs are too big to be digested by most people. Therefore, people talk about using “half Kelly” or half of the bet amount calculated from Kelly Criterion in attempt to reduce the portfolio volatility.
- To use Kelly Criterion, it req
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